Global Tipping Points: in praise of great research comms

Humanity is now on the brink of crossing five critical natural thresholds, which could trigger catastrophic domino effects that cause irreversible and far-reaching damage to people and nature.

Throughout the fortnight of the COP28 climate talks in Dubai, there was of course no shortage of sobering headline messages. But that one, from the University of Exeter-led Global Tipping Points report, was right up there.

Compiled with the support of around 200 researchers from more than 90 organisations in 26 countries, the report identified five major Earth systems already at risk of crossing tipping points at the present level of global warming: the Greenland and West Antarctic ice sheets, warm-water coral reefs, North Atlantic Subpolar Gyre circulation, and permafrost regions. A tipping point occurs when change in part of a system becomes self-perpetuating beyond a threshold, leading to substantial, widespread, frequently abrupt and often irreversible impact.

But, for this post, I want to focus on some positives from a communications perspective. The Global Tipping Points study also conveys messages of hope.

The theory is that society can exploit ‘positive tipping point opportunities’, where bold, coordinated policies lead to disproportionately large and rapid benefits that accelerate our collective transition towards sustainability. As the report says: “One positive tipping point can trigger others, creating a domino effect of change.” It cites the example of electric vehicles. As they become a dominant form of transport, battery costs fall. Lower-cost batteries provide us with greater storage capacity, reinforcing the positive tipping point to renewable power. This, in turn, can trigger another tipping point in producing green ammonia for fertilisers, shipping, and so on.

Ensuring this message of hope gains traction is no easy task when the stark ramifications of negative tipping points consume most of the column inches in the international media. But Professor Tim Lenton and the University of Exeter team deserve credit for their delicate balancing act of communicating both threats and opportunities. This article in New Scientist – with a headline of “We can trigger positive tipping points to cut carbon emissions faster” – suggests messages around inspiring positive solutions are landing.

Which brings me on to another positive. The University of Exeter’s dedicated website for the Global Tipping Points report is a mighty fine example of excellent research communication and should be applauded. The 494-page report is broken down into its component parts, which can be read online or downloaded. The accompanying explainers, infographics, summaries and video content are engaging. And I love the creation of the Tipping Points Chatbot, which can provide simpler explanations of the report's more technical content. Users are invited to click the ‘sources’ button to see the parts of the report that form the basis of the chatbot’s answers – and they can flag suspected mistakes to the development team (it is a pilot tool after all). I asked it for a straightforward explanation of how and why the Indian summer monsoon might shift to an alternative state as a result of aerosol emissions – and came away wiser.

Yes, Global Tipping Points is a well-funded initiative (by the Bezos Earth Fund). But I do think it raises the bar for how universities could communicate the outcomes of their high-priority research programmes to maximise their impact. A trigger for a positive tipping point for academic research communication perhaps?